Our Spring Statement 2026 – what it means for you

The backdrop to this update

The Spring Forecast comes only fourteen weeks after the Chancellor’s last Budget. Since then, we’ve seen a series of policy reversals, especially around Inheritance Tax (IHT) reliefs and business rates. Add in a turbulent winter and rising political noise, and it’s been a challenging time for families, businesses and investors alike.

The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East adds another layer of uncertainty. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned it could have “very significant impacts” on the UK and global economy. We’re already seeing this through slightly higher oil prices and some market volatility.

Why this isn’t a Spring Statement

The Chancellor has said she wants only one major Budget each year. The Spring Forecast fulfils the OBR’s duty to update its data, but it avoids a full fiscal assessment. That means fewer political pressures, fewer sudden changes and more space for longer‑term thinking.

What the latest numbers tell us

Recent figures from the ONS show how mixed the economic picture remains:

• Growth is still weak, with GDP up only 0.1% at the end of 2025.
• Unemployment has risen, especially for younger people.
• Earnings growth is slowing, which may help bring inflation down.
• Inflation is steady at 3%, and forecasters expect it to return close to 2% soon.
• Retail spending has picked up, helped by stronger non‑food sales in January.

The OBR’s updated view

Compared with November’s outlook:

• Growth for 2026 is lower, but slightly stronger in later years.
• Inflation is expected to fall faster.
• Unemployment is likely to be higher this year, easing later on.
• Fiscal headroom has improved a little, helped by stronger tax receipts.
• Borrowing remains high but is projected to ease after 2027.
• Debt costs are slightly lower, due to interest rate expectations.

The part global events will play

The OBR stresses that this outlook depends heavily on what happens next in the Middle East. Oil prices are higher than forecast, and gilt yields climbed on the day of the Chancellor’s speech. Markets are now expecting interest rates to stay where they are for longer.

What this means for your plans

There’s still time before the next Budget, and the picture may change. We’re here to help you navigate this period confidently and we’ll always keep your long‑term goals in mind.

If you’d like to talk through any of this, we’re always here.

The information and/or any reference to specific instruments contained in this article does not constitute an investment recommendation or tax advice. Tax rules are subject to change and taxation will vary depending on individual circumstances. Capital at risk.